Dr. Jiahua CHEN (China)
Professor, School of Social Development & Pubic Policy, Fudan University
Field: Population and Environmental Policy
- Population and social policy
- Population mobility and Environmental capacity
- Eco footprint and urban growth
Social policy decision making system
Economy development, population and sustainable development in China
The growth with high speed of China economy has lasted for about 30 years. As while as we feel exciting about it, people began to explore the facts behind the statistics data such as the source of growth and the pattern of economy development. A lot of researchers paid closed attention to the obstacles of sustainable development.
The changing of population in China is also undergoing as the economy are running faster and faster. This swift change is called demographic shift which has great impact on a lot of aspects of the society including economy growth. For example, the labor-age population’s change will have directly influence on the labor supply. The question is when this labor-age changing, will the economy growth been influenced by it distinctly and how if it did?
In order to solve this problem, I set sample period as 1978-2010. We got some useful findings after careful analysis. Then we make some predictions on the labor-age population in the future. I use the findings and the predictions to build up 3 simulated paths of economy growing. With the help of these 3 paths, we reached the conclusion, which is that it is not possible for the future economy growth in china to be strained by the decrease of labor-age population. Instead of the quantity of labor supply, we should pay more attention to the quality of labor force. And it is also suggested that capital, TFP should been considered mainly when deal with the growth problem of China future economy.